Full-ensemble mid-century change in maximum 1-day precipitation under SSP2-4.5.
Climate-risk evidence
Case studies from Arasense climate-risk workflows.
Each example shows how Arasense evaluates climate-model trust, reports flood, heat, or drought signals, and communicates the level of model agreement behind the result.
Sample outputs and regional applications
Sample ranking places Rome highest for worsening max 1-day rainfall among five Italian cities.
Climate-risk evidence packs can support rainfall, heat, infrastructure, and adaptation planning.
Bologna flood-driving rainfall
This case shows maximum 1-day precipitation, historical 1995-2014 vs future 2040-2059. Arasense first scores model trust, then projects the hazard using the skill-weighted models.
Historical: 40.23 mm
Future: 45.97 mm
Change: +5.73 mm (+14.2%)
Model trust: 32 of 34 models passed skill screening
Agreement: 78% trusted-model weight agreeing on increase
| Model | Weight | Historical | 2050 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CESM2 | 4% | 48.30 mm | 49.93 mm | +1.64 mm |
| CMCC-CM2-SR5 | 4% | 44.75 mm | 54.12 mm | +9.37 mm |
| ACCESS-CM2 | 4% | 48.58 mm | 49.80 mm | +1.23 mm |
| GFDL-ESM4 | 3% | 46.58 mm | 56.32 mm | +9.74 mm |
Italian flood-exposure portfolio
A portfolio view makes the product easier for asset owners, consultants, and risk teams to understand. Instead of one location, Arasense ranks several places by worsening flood-driving rainfall signal.
| Rank | Location | Today | 2050 | Change | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rome | 39.91 mm | 47.40 mm | +7.49 mm (+19%) | 100% |
| 2 | Milan | 63.90 mm | 72.10 mm | +8.20 mm (+13%) | 79% |
| 3 | Florence | 46.17 mm | 51.45 mm | +5.28 mm (+11%) | 80% |
| 4 | Bologna | 44.20 mm | 48.95 mm | +4.75 mm (+11%) | 100% |
| 5 | Venice | 52.96 mm | 54.70 mm | +1.74 mm (+3%) | 56% |
Bari / Puglia regional application
The Arasense workflow can be applied to Bari and selected Puglia locations to support adaptation planning, infrastructure resilience, and climate-risk communication.
Where is climate-model evidence strongest?
Run Bari and selected Puglia locations through rainfall, heat, and drought diagnostics.
One evidence pack
Map, model-trust table, 2050 hazard signal, uncertainty range, and short interpretation.
Public and advisory teams
Useful for municipalities, infrastructure owners, engineering firms, and climate consultants.