Arasense
Every number here can be interrogated.
Three worked examples of the Arasense workflow: model trust scored first, hazards projected second, and uncertainty reported instead of hidden.
Bologna · flood-driving rainfall
All 34 CMIP6 models were scored against observed climate for the Bologna region before any projection was made. 32 passed skill screening; the projection uses only those, weighted by measured skill.
The full trusted ensemble: every model, every vote
Each column is one trusted model's projected change in Bologna's maximum 1-day rainfall. Most vote for heavier rain; a handful disagree, and the disagreement is shown, not averaged away. Hover any column.
Top contributing models
| Model | Weight | Historical | 2050 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CESM2 | 4% | 48.30 mm | 49.93 mm | +1.64 mm |
| CMCC-CM2-SR5 | 4% | 44.75 mm | 54.12 mm | +9.37 mm |
| ACCESS-CM2 | 4% | 48.58 mm | 49.80 mm | +1.23 mm |
| GFDL-ESM4 | 3% | 46.58 mm | 56.32 mm | +9.74 mm |
The full report lists every trusted and rejected model with its weight; see the live visual on the homepage for all 32 trusted models, or sample evidence for the scenario comparison.
Italian flood-exposure portfolio
The same trust-first workflow applied across five cities, ranked by worsening flood-driving rainfall signal. This is how asset owners, consultants, and risk teams compare exposures with one consistent method.
| Rank | Location | Today | 2050 | Change | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rome | 39.91 mm | 47.40 mm | +7.49 mm (+19%) | 100% |
| 2 | Milan | 63.90 mm | 72.10 mm | +8.20 mm (+13%) | 79% |
| 3 | Florence | 46.17 mm | 51.45 mm | +5.28 mm (+11%) | 80% |
| 4 | Bologna | 44.20 mm | 48.95 mm | +4.75 mm (+11%) | 100% |
| 5 | Venice | 52.96 mm | 54.70 mm | +1.74 mm (+3%) | 56% |
Note how the agreement column changes the story: Venice's +3% carries only 56% model agreement, a signal to treat with caution, and exactly the kind of nuance a single ranking score would bury.
Bari / Puglia · regional application
The workflow applied to Bari and selected Puglia locations for adaptation planning, infrastructure resilience, and climate-risk communication.
Where is model evidence strongest?
Bari and selected Puglia locations run through rainfall, heat, and drought diagnostics.
One evidence pack
Map, model-trust table, 2050 hazard signal, uncertainty range, and short interpretation.
Public & advisory teams
Municipalities, infrastructure owners, engineering firms, and climate consultants.