{
 "case": "Bologna \u2014 Aras Diagram of the CMIP6 trust screening",
 "notes": "Re-run (July 2026) of the exact screening configuration behind the published +14.2% rx1day projection: monthly climatology vs observed ERA5-Land, 1995-2014, 50 km radius. The 32 trusted weights reproduce the published run to four decimals. EC-Earth3-Veg-LR is rejected (negative correlation); HadGEM3-GC31-MM, rejected originally, now sits marginally above the floor and is flagged borderline.",
 "region": {
  "lat": 44.494,
  "lon": 11.343,
  "radius_km": 50
 },
 "reference": "ERA5-Land",
 "window": [
  "1995-01-01",
  "2014-12-31"
 ],
 "n_models": 34,
 "n_rejected": 1,
 "models": [
  {
   "n": "CESM2",
   "b": -0.1379,
   "a": 0.0111,
   "xe": -0.814,
   "ye": 0.0654,
   "r": 0.1951,
   "kge": 0.1833,
   "e": 81.7,
   "w": 0.03656,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "CMCC-CM2-SR5",
   "b": -0.1757,
   "a": -0.111,
   "xe": -0.7095,
   "ye": -0.4483,
   "r": 0.1868,
   "kge": 0.1607,
   "e": 83.9,
   "w": 0.03517,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "ACCESS-CM2",
   "b": -0.1879,
   "a": -0.1621,
   "xe": -0.6357,
   "ye": -0.5485,
   "r": 0.1979,
   "kge": 0.1604,
   "e": 84.0,
   "w": 0.03515,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "GFDL-ESM4",
   "b": -0.1649,
   "a": -0.1501,
   "xe": -0.629,
   "ye": -0.5724,
   "r": 0.1793,
   "kge": 0.1495,
   "e": 85.0,
   "w": 0.03448,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "CMCC-ESM2",
   "b": -0.1945,
   "a": -0.1196,
   "xe": -0.7246,
   "ye": -0.4456,
   "r": 0.1806,
   "kge": 0.1494,
   "e": 85.1,
   "w": 0.03447,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "GISS-E2-1-G",
   "b": -0.2128,
   "a": -0.2405,
   "xe": -0.5735,
   "ye": -0.6484,
   "r": 0.1961,
   "kge": 0.1344,
   "e": 86.6,
   "w": 0.03355,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "GFDL-CM4",
   "b": -0.1892,
   "a": -0.1674,
   "xe": -0.6534,
   "ye": -0.5782,
   "r": 0.1648,
   "kge": 0.1275,
   "e": 87.3,
   "w": 0.03312,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "FGOALS-g3",
   "b": -0.1658,
   "a": -0.2589,
   "xe": -0.4733,
   "ye": -0.7392,
   "r": 0.1778,
   "kge": 0.1222,
   "e": 87.8,
   "w": 0.0328,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "NorESM2-LM",
   "b": -0.1751,
   "a": -0.0714,
   "xe": -0.8165,
   "ye": -0.3331,
   "r": 0.1386,
   "kge": 0.1181,
   "e": 88.2,
   "w": 0.03255,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "CESM2-WACCM",
   "b": -0.1489,
   "a": -0.0279,
   "xe": -0.8688,
   "ye": -0.1629,
   "r": 0.1292,
   "kge": 0.1161,
   "e": 88.4,
   "w": 0.03242,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "UKESM1-0-LL",
   "b": -0.1715,
   "a": -0.0869,
   "xe": -0.7899,
   "ye": -0.4003,
   "r": 0.1356,
   "kge": 0.1145,
   "e": 88.6,
   "w": 0.03232,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "MPI-ESM1-2-HR",
   "b": -0.1224,
   "a": -0.1365,
   "xe": -0.5919,
   "ye": -0.6601,
   "r": 0.1325,
   "kge": 0.1134,
   "e": 88.7,
   "w": 0.03225,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "IPSL-CM6A-LR",
   "b": -0.1824,
   "a": -0.175,
   "xe": -0.6625,
   "ye": -0.6359,
   "r": 0.1172,
   "kge": 0.0817,
   "e": 91.8,
   "w": 0.0303,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "CanESM5",
   "b": -0.1737,
   "a": -0.2157,
   "xe": -0.5763,
   "ye": -0.7155,
   "r": 0.124,
   "kge": 0.0813,
   "e": 91.9,
   "w": 0.03027,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "MPI-ESM1-2-LR",
   "b": -0.1536,
   "a": 0.0199,
   "xe": -0.9172,
   "ye": 0.119,
   "r": 0.0882,
   "kge": 0.0751,
   "e": 92.5,
   "w": 0.0299,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "KACE-1-0-G",
   "b": -0.2658,
   "a": -0.0857,
   "xe": -0.8837,
   "ye": -0.285,
   "r": 0.1144,
   "kge": 0.0714,
   "e": 92.9,
   "w": 0.02967,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "BCC-CSM2-MR",
   "b": -0.1796,
   "a": -0.095,
   "xe": -0.8227,
   "ye": -0.4353,
   "r": 0.0916,
   "kge": 0.0692,
   "e": 93.1,
   "w": 0.02953,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "HadGEM3-GC31-MM",
   "b": -0.1973,
   "a": -0.1909,
   "xe": -0.6703,
   "ye": -0.6484,
   "r": 0.1087,
   "kge": 0.0674,
   "e": 93.3,
   "w": 0.02942,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false,
   "bl": "rejected in the original published run; in this re-run it sits just above the floor (r = +0.11). Borderline models can flip as the archive updates \u2014 which is why the floor is published."
  },
  {
   "n": "HadGEM3-GC31-LL",
   "b": -0.1675,
   "a": -0.1144,
   "xe": -0.7726,
   "ye": -0.5276,
   "r": 0.0867,
   "kge": 0.0644,
   "e": 93.6,
   "w": 0.02924,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "EC-Earth3",
   "b": -0.1244,
   "a": -0.0995,
   "xe": -0.7308,
   "ye": -0.5846,
   "r": 0.0778,
   "kge": 0.0642,
   "e": 93.6,
   "w": 0.02922,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "ACCESS-ESM1-5",
   "b": -0.1618,
   "a": -0.1797,
   "xe": -0.627,
   "ye": -0.6963,
   "r": 0.0948,
   "kge": 0.063,
   "e": 93.7,
   "w": 0.02915,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "MIROC-ES2L",
   "b": -0.1442,
   "a": -0.2146,
   "xe": -0.5233,
   "ye": -0.7791,
   "r": 0.0977,
   "kge": 0.0614,
   "e": 93.9,
   "w": 0.02905,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "CNRM-ESM2-1",
   "b": -0.1644,
   "a": -0.1007,
   "xe": -0.8045,
   "ye": -0.4927,
   "r": 0.0765,
   "kge": 0.0566,
   "e": 94.3,
   "w": 0.02875,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "TaiESM1",
   "b": -0.2068,
   "a": -0.1771,
   "xe": -0.7232,
   "ye": -0.6194,
   "r": 0.0876,
   "kge": 0.0478,
   "e": 95.2,
   "w": 0.02821,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "KIOST-ESM",
   "b": -0.1809,
   "a": -0.1343,
   "xe": -0.7673,
   "ye": -0.5696,
   "r": 0.0713,
   "kge": 0.0444,
   "e": 95.6,
   "w": 0.028,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "MRI-ESM2-0",
   "b": -0.1728,
   "a": -0.1022,
   "xe": -0.8237,
   "ye": -0.4871,
   "r": 0.0644,
   "kge": 0.0431,
   "e": 95.7,
   "w": 0.02792,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "NESM3",
   "b": -0.2435,
   "a": -0.0907,
   "xe": -0.9016,
   "ye": -0.3358,
   "r": 0.0737,
   "kge": 0.0379,
   "e": 96.2,
   "w": 0.0276,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "INM-CM5-0",
   "b": -0.1749,
   "a": -0.1211,
   "xe": -0.7932,
   "ye": -0.5491,
   "r": 0.0591,
   "kge": 0.0353,
   "e": 96.5,
   "w": 0.02744,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "CNRM-CM6-1",
   "b": -0.1876,
   "a": -0.1615,
   "xe": -0.7331,
   "ye": -0.631,
   "r": 0.0649,
   "kge": 0.0327,
   "e": 96.7,
   "w": 0.02728,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "INM-CM4-8",
   "b": -0.1445,
   "a": -0.1632,
   "xe": -0.6422,
   "ye": -0.7254,
   "r": 0.056,
   "kge": 0.0312,
   "e": 96.9,
   "w": 0.02719,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "NorESM2-MM",
   "b": -0.1811,
   "a": -0.1824,
   "xe": -0.6835,
   "ye": -0.6883,
   "r": 0.0647,
   "kge": 0.03,
   "e": 97.0,
   "w": 0.02711,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "IITM-ESM",
   "b": -0.1776,
   "a": -0.1508,
   "xe": -0.7648,
   "ye": -0.6494,
   "r": 0.0241,
   "kge": -0.0033,
   "e": 100.3,
   "w": 0.02506,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "MIROC6",
   "b": -0.1683,
   "a": -0.1575,
   "xe": -0.7353,
   "ye": -0.6879,
   "r": 0.0198,
   "kge": -0.0069,
   "e": 100.7,
   "w": 0.02484,
   "tier": "weak",
   "rej": false
  },
  {
   "n": "EC-Earth3-Veg-LR",
   "b": -0.1284,
   "a": -0.0889,
   "xe": -0.8431,
   "ye": -0.584,
   "r": -0.0137,
   "kge": -0.0256,
   "e": 102.6,
   "w": 0.0,
   "tier": "reject",
   "rej": true
  }
 ]
}