These public examples summarize outputs generated by the Arasense console: trust-weighted projections, scenario comparison, multi-hazard profiling, portfolio ranking, and validation-stage flood screening.
Maximum 1-day precipitation, historical 1995-2014 vs future 2040-2059. Trust-weighted CMIP6 projection using models that pass Aras Diagram skill screening.
| Baseline | Future | Spread | Trusted models |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40.23 mm | 45.97 mm | -0.26 to +11.73 mm | 32 of 34 |
The historical baseline and model trust are held constant; only emissions scenario changes.
| Scenario | Future | Change | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|
| SSP2-4.5 | 45.97 mm | +14.2% | 78% |
| SSP5-8.5 | 45.64 mm | +13.5% | 74% |
A single location profile across rainfall, heat, and drought indicators under SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Today | 2050 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood-driving rainfall | 44.20 mm | 48.95 mm | +4.75 mm |
| Heat | 37.4 C | 40.8 C | +3.4 K |
| Drought | 62.8% | 64.2% | +1.4 pts |
Locations ranked by trust-weighted mid-century change in maximum 1-day precipitation.
| Rank | Location | Today | 2050 | Change | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rome | 39.91 mm | 47.40 mm | +7.49 mm (+19%) | 100% |
| 2 | Milan | 63.90 mm | 72.10 mm | +8.20 mm (+13%) | 79% |
| 3 | Florence | 46.17 mm | 51.45 mm | +5.28 mm (+11%) | 80% |
| 4 | Bologna | 44.20 mm | 48.95 mm | +4.75 mm (+11%) | 100% |
| 5 | Venice | 52.96 mm | 54.70 mm | +1.74 mm (+3%) | 56% |
Validation-stage flood screening compared against a Sentinel-1 threshold mask. The event hindcast uses ERA5-Land observed precipitation, not a free-running climate model.