Public summaries of outputs generated by the Arasense console: trust-weighted projections, scenario comparison, multi-hazard profiling, portfolio ranking, and validation-stage flood screening.
Bologna projection
Flood-driving rainfall, mid-century
Maximum 1-day precipitation, historical 1995–2014 vs future 2040–2059. Trust-weighted CMIP6 projection using models that pass Aras Diagram skill screening.
+5.73 mmProjected max 1-day precipitation change.
+14.2%Relative increase from the historical baseline.
78%Trusted-model weight agreeing on increase.
Baseline
Future
Spread
Trusted models
40.23 mm
45.97 mm
−0.26 to +11.73 mm
32 of 34
−2 mm0▲ trust-weighted mean +5.73 mm+13 mm
The uncertainty range is drawn to scale, not buried in a footnote: trusted models span −0.26 to +11.73 mm, and the trust-weighted mean sits at +5.73 mm.
Scenario comparison
SSP2-4.5 vs SSP5-8.5
The historical baseline and model trust are held constant; only the emissions scenario changes.
SSP2-4.5+14.2% · 78%
SSP5-8.5+13.5% · 74%
For this indicator and location the scenario gap is small, and the report says so, rather than dramatizing it. Agreement is shown for both runs.
Multi-hazard profile
Bologna hazard signals
A single-location profile across rainfall, heat, and drought indicators under SSP2-4.5.
Hazard
Today
2050
Change
Flood-driving rainfall
44.20 mm
48.95 mm
+4.75 mm
Heat
37.4 °C
40.8 °C
+3.4 K
Drought
62.8%
64.2%
+1.4 pts
Portfolio ranking
Italian flood-exposure pilot
Locations ranked by trust-weighted mid-century change in maximum 1-day precipitation.
Rank
Location
Today
2050
Change
Agreement
1
Rome
39.91 mm
47.40 mm
+7.49 mm (+19%)
100%
2
Milan
63.90 mm
72.10 mm
+8.20 mm (+13%)
79%
3
Florence
46.17 mm
51.45 mm
+5.28 mm (+11%)
80%
4
Bologna
44.20 mm
48.95 mm
+4.75 mm (+11%)
100%
5
Venice
52.96 mm
54.70 mm
+1.74 mm (+3%)
56%
Validation-stage flood screening
Emilia-Romagna / Bologna, May 2023 flood
Validation-stage flood screening compared against a Sentinel-1 threshold mask. The event hindcast uses ERA5-Land observed precipitation, not a free-running climate model.
15.217Event precipitation, mm/day.
2.068 σRainfall anomaly in standard deviations.
100%Probability of detection in this sample case.
Interpretation limit. Validation metrics are useful for pilot evaluation and model improvement. They are not operational accuracy claims.
Validation note. Flood outputs are validation-stage screening evidence. They are not a replacement for hydraulic modelling, field validation, local calibration, or engineering-grade flood forecasting.
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