Model-trust diagnostics and mid-century projections for indicators such as maximum 1-day precipitation.
Regional application
Bari / Puglia climate-risk evidence for planning and infrastructure decisions.
Arasense can apply model-trust intelligence to selected Bari and Puglia locations, translating complex climate-model uncertainty into evidence for flood-driving rainfall, heat, and drought risk.
What the regional evidence pack can cover
Temperature indicators for adaptation planning, infrastructure stress, and heat-risk communication.
Dry-day indicators for regional screening and comparison across selected locations.
From location to decision evidence
Select locations
Define Bari city points, coastal zones, infrastructure assets, municipalities, or a small portfolio of sites.
Score model trust
Compare model history against observations and decompose error with the Aras Diagram.
Project 2050 hazards
Use skill-weighted models to estimate rainfall, heat, and drought signals with uncertainty and agreement shown.
Package the evidence
Deliver a concise report with trusted models, rejected models, hazard signal, interpretation, and method notes.
Current Arasense examples supporting the regional workflow
| Example | Signal | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna rainfall | +14.2% maximum 1-day rainfall by mid-century | Demonstrates full-ensemble model screening, trust weighting, uncertainty, and model agreement. |
| Italian portfolio | Rome ranks highest among five sample cities | Shows how Arasense ranks locations by worsening flood-driving rainfall signal. |
| Aras Diagram | Peer-reviewed model-evaluation method | Provides a transparent basis for explaining which models are trusted and why. |
Briefings and regional studies
Arasense is available for guided briefings, pilot studies, and selected collaborations with public-sector, infrastructure, advisory, and research partners.