Arasense
Select locations
Define Bari city points, coastal zones, infrastructure assets, municipalities, or a small portfolio of sites.
Regional application
Climate-risk evidence, made in Puglia.
Arasense applies model-trust intelligence to Bari and selected Puglia locations, translating climate-model uncertainty into evidence for flood-driving rainfall, heat, and drought decisions.
PILOT · ACTIVE
EVIDENCE PACK · AVAILABLE NOW
ATLAS NUMBERS · FOLLOW THE PILOT
Direct line
Get the Bari / Puglia trust brief by email
One email, no list, no follow-up sequence: the regional brief and a short note on how the trust-first method applies to your locations.
Scope
What the regional evidence pack covers
Flood-driving rainfall
Extreme rain
Model-trust diagnostics and mid-century projections for indicators such as maximum 1-day precipitation.
Heat
Urban heat
Temperature indicators for adaptation planning, infrastructure stress, and heat-risk communication.
Drought
Dry days
Dry-day indicators for regional screening and comparison across selected locations.
Method
From location to decision evidence
Score model trust
Compare each model's history against observations and decompose the error with the Aras Diagram.
Project 2050 hazards
Use skill-weighted models to estimate rainfall, heat, and drought signals, with uncertainty and agreement shown.
Package the evidence
Deliver a concise report with trusted models, rejected models, hazard signal, interpretation, and method notes.
Existing evidence base
Already demonstrated elsewhere
| Example | Signal | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna rainfall | +14.2% max 1-day rainfall by mid-century | Full-ensemble screening, trust weighting, uncertainty, and model agreement. |
| Italian portfolio | Rome ranks highest of five cities | Locations ranked by worsening flood-driving rainfall signal. |
| Aras Diagram | Peer-reviewed evaluation method | A transparent basis for explaining which models are trusted and why. |
See the full case studies for the complete tables and interpretation.
Contact
Briefings and regional studies
Arasense is available for guided briefings, pilot studies, and selected collaborations with public-sector, infrastructure, advisory, and research partners.