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   "error_attribution": {
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 ],
 "projection": {
  "metric": "rx1day",
  "variable": "precipitation",
  "n_models_trusted": 31,
  "n_models_total": 34,
  "models_used": [
   "ACCESS-CM2",
   "ACCESS-ESM1-5",
   "BCC-CSM2-MR",
   "CESM2-WACCM",
   "CESM2",
   "CMCC-CM2-SR5",
   "CMCC-ESM2",
   "CNRM-CM6-1",
   "CNRM-ESM2-1",
   "CanESM5",
   "EC-Earth3-Veg-LR",
   "EC-Earth3",
   "FGOALS-g3",
   "GFDL-CM4",
   "GFDL-ESM4",
   "GISS-E2-1-G",
   "HadGEM3-GC31-LL",
   "IITM-ESM",
   "INM-CM4-8",
   "INM-CM5-0",
   "IPSL-CM6A-LR",
   "KACE-1-0-G",
   "MIROC-ES2L",
   "MIROC6",
   "MPI-ESM1-2-HR",
   "MPI-ESM1-2-LR",
   "NESM3",
   "NorESM2-LM",
   "NorESM2-MM",
   "TaiESM1",
   "UKESM1-0-LL"
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  "future_level": 160.96034820030863,
  "change": -69.91211576995383,
  "change_spread": 307.6831059889614,
  "change_low": -377.5952217589153,
  "change_high": 237.7709902190076,
  "pct_change": -30.28170383236299,
  "agreement_on_increase": 0.39090903856073084,
  "per_model": [
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    "weight": 0.035558308492447656,
    "trust_tier": "trusted",
    "historical": 112.97667680845343,
    "future": 87.69023198979257,
    "change": -25.28644481866087
   },
   {
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    "weight": 0.030534295104750392,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 88.26591544544122,
    "future": 81.22241849022068,
    "change": -7.043496955220547
   },
   {
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    "weight": 0.020092585763739637,
    "trust_tier": "weak",
    "historical": 1512.773824269718,
    "future": 163.78278188490546,
    "change": -1348.9910423848125
   },
   {
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    "weight": 0.032858614345171254,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 43.17836976940889,
    "future": 56.572864027978056,
    "change": 13.394494258569168
   },
   {
    "name": "CESM2",
    "weight": 0.0322061207846722,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 38.77728858555998,
    "future": 46.448089484055195,
    "change": 7.670800898495216
   },
   {
    "name": "CMCC-CM2-SR5",
    "weight": 0.02974526583300436,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 160.02080547444092,
    "future": 471.4663802387533,
    "change": 311.44557476431237
   },
   {
    "name": "CMCC-ESM2",
    "weight": 0.029755603657435046,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 684.0054951510309,
    "future": 397.48551809862624,
    "change": -286.51997705240467
   },
   {
    "name": "CNRM-CM6-1",
    "weight": 0.031224632971845856,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 40.96463191804298,
    "future": 40.240690519504106,
    "change": -0.7239413985388765
   },
   {
    "name": "CNRM-ESM2-1",
    "weight": 0.032771969255115434,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 33.100476477390124,
    "future": 42.068193677346294,
    "change": 8.96771719995617
   },
   {
    "name": "CanESM5",
    "weight": 0.03301610649231273,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 144.88716657883052,
    "future": 112.31550016991541,
    "change": -32.57166640891511
   },
   {
    "name": "EC-Earth3-Veg-LR",
    "weight": 0.03140438499678281,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 89.56165967165522,
    "future": 183.1860845965304,
    "change": 93.62442492487519
   },
   {
    "name": "EC-Earth3",
    "weight": 0.03290656993392203,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 77.91084473028278,
    "future": 76.25773181640491,
    "change": -1.6531129138778624
   },
   {
    "name": "FGOALS-g3",
    "weight": 0.03335252091893272,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 40.56780223613919,
    "future": 31.386182157941356,
    "change": -9.181620078197831
   },
   {
    "name": "GFDL-CM4",
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    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 326.38463285183366,
    "future": 203.0555583445137,
    "change": -123.32907450731994
   },
   {
    "name": "GFDL-ESM4",
    "weight": 0.03084461268089076,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 281.43684691875507,
    "future": 138.4521923960026,
    "change": -142.98465452275246
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   {
    "name": "GISS-E2-1-G",
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    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 49.358078955547114,
    "future": 39.72321576194919,
    "change": -9.634863193597923
   },
   {
    "name": "HadGEM3-GC31-LL",
    "weight": 0.033095359252765286,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 40.54890251864267,
    "future": 41.689028676163026,
    "change": 1.1401261575203563
   },
   {
    "name": "IITM-ESM",
    "weight": 0.03173744308952817,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 330.9427450861402,
    "future": 292.6743554015595,
    "change": -38.268389684580654
   },
   {
    "name": "INM-CM4-8",
    "weight": 0.03199313636520252,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 36.488875769934715,
    "future": 59.13176002544719,
    "change": 22.642884255512477
   },
   {
    "name": "INM-CM5-0",
    "weight": 0.03088641923416537,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 53.79042627893343,
    "future": 46.081315150858075,
    "change": -7.709111128075357
   },
   {
    "name": "IPSL-CM6A-LR",
    "weight": 0.034043517743924084,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 46.05362820704573,
    "future": 43.988493232036554,
    "change": -2.0651349750091796
   },
   {
    "name": "KACE-1-0-G",
    "weight": 0.02935146517417777,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 155.41895025666895,
    "future": 156.0444391361233,
    "change": 0.6254888794543376
   },
   {
    "name": "MIROC-ES2L",
    "weight": 0.030726619649223685,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 40.11094288144291,
    "future": 38.7849116330663,
    "change": -1.3260312483766086
   },
   {
    "name": "MIROC6",
    "weight": 0.03126307945939562,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 48.45377470480811,
    "future": 53.46116867178166,
    "change": 5.007393966973545
   },
   {
    "name": "MPI-ESM1-2-HR",
    "weight": 0.03332354498398464,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 141.76688454483195,
    "future": 45.634225979210676,
    "change": -96.13265856562128
   },
   {
    "name": "MPI-ESM1-2-LR",
    "weight": 0.02335150431588999,
    "trust_tier": "weak",
    "historical": 1372.989589472032,
    "future": 300.0791375851077,
    "change": -1072.9104518869244
   },
   {
    "name": "NESM3",
    "weight": 0.02978219809466602,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 1006.1226124264983,
    "future": 398.4417292225349,
    "change": -607.6808832039635
   },
   {
    "name": "NorESM2-LM",
    "weight": 0.029677660999685915,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 345.41811838139466,
    "future": 518.150869023549,
    "change": 172.73275064215437
   },
   {
    "name": "NorESM2-MM",
    "weight": 0.03218276002411103,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 616.1013210368502,
    "future": 297.59649361003403,
    "change": -318.5048274268162
   },
   {
    "name": "TaiESM1",
    "weight": 0.03201394758140487,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 49.35637814028924,
    "future": 621.8776495602021,
    "change": 572.5212714199129
   },
   {
    "name": "UKESM1-0-LL",
    "weight": 0.03164596697584412,
    "trust_tier": "usable",
    "historical": 44.155165797368525,
    "future": 44.58591567857882,
    "change": 0.43074988121029634
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  ],
  "trust_summary": {
   "n_models": 34,
   "tier_counts": {
    "trusted": 1,
    "usable": 29,
    "weak": 2,
    "reject": 2
   },
   "n_trusted_or_usable": 30,
   "n_kept": 32,
   "effective_ensemble_size": 31.734279493828147,
   "best_model": "ACCESS-CM2",
   "best_kge": 0.7637133440997282,
   "recommendation": "Project from the 32 skill-weighted model(s). Best model 'ACCESS-CM2' (total Aras error 24%); its residual error is dominated by timing / correlation mismatch (r), which is the priority target for bias correction."
  },
  "confidence": {
   "score": 54,
   "label": "medium",
   "drivers": [
    "91% of scored models retained",
    "22% directional agreement strength",
    "0% uncertainty-band support",
    "100% effective ensemble balance"
   ],
   "components": {
    "trust_share": 0.9117647058823529,
    "agreement_strength": 0.21818192287853833,
    "spread_score": 0.0,
    "effective_ensemble_score": 1.0
   }
  },
  "adaptation_options": [
   {
    "category": "Rainfall monitoring",
    "action": "Keep drainage assumptions under review; the trusted ensemble does not show a stronger extreme-rain signal here.",
    "why": "Low or negative projected change still needs monitoring when assets are highly exposed."
   }
  ]
 },
 "report_markdown": "# Arasense Climate Intelligence Report\n\n**Report type:** Climate Projection Report\n**Case:** Lat 19.433, Lon -99.133\n**Indicator:** Maximum 1-day precipitation\n**Analysis window:** historical 1995-01-01 to 2014-12-31 vs future 2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31\n**Region: lat 19.433, lon -99.133, radius 50.0 km**\n\n> Arasense reports only skill-screened, trust-weighted climate projections. Uncertainty is shown explicitly as trusted-model spread.\n\n## Executive summary\n\n- **Maximum 1-day precipitation: -69.91 mm (-30.3%)** by mid-century\n- Historical 230.87 mm -> future 160.96 mm\n- Across-model spread (+/- 1 sigma): -377.60 to +237.77 mm\n- Model agreement on decrease: **39%** of trusted-model weight\n\n## Interpretation\n\nThe trusted ensemble indicates a decrease in maximum 1-day precipitation by mid-century. The result is strongest when agreement is high and the spread band does not cross zero.\n\n## Model trust\n\n- **31 of 34** CMIP6 models passed skill screening and were skill-weighted.\n- Best model: ACCESS-CM2.\n\n## Top contributing models\n\n| Model | Weight | Historical (mm) | Future (mm) | Change (mm) |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| ACCESS-CM2 | 4% | 112.98 | 87.69 | -25.29 |\n| IPSL-CM6A-LR | 3% | 46.05 | 43.99 | -2.07 |\n| FGOALS-g3 | 3% | 40.57 | 31.39 | -9.18 |\n| MPI-ESM1-2-HR | 3% | 141.77 | 45.63 | -96.13 |\n| GFDL-CM4 | 3% | 326.38 | 203.06 | -123.33 |\n| HadGEM3-GC31-LL | 3% | 40.55 | 41.69 | +1.14 |\n| CanESM5 | 3% | 144.89 | 112.32 | -32.57 |\n| EC-Earth3 | 3% | 77.91 | 76.26 | -1.65 |\n\n## Confidence\n\n- Overall confidence: **54/100 (medium)**\n- 91% of scored models retained\n- 22% directional agreement strength\n- 0% uncertainty-band support\n- 100% effective ensemble balance\n\n## Practical next actions\n\n- **Rainfall monitoring:** Keep drainage assumptions under review; the trusted ensemble does not show a stronger extreme-rain signal here. Low or negative projected change still needs monitoring when assets are highly exposed.\n\n## Scientific method\n\n- Observational baseline: ERA5-Land historical climatology for the selected location and window.\n- Model source: CMIP6 climate-model ensemble, evaluated locally against the baseline.\n- Aras Diagram score: KGE = 1 - E_total.\n- Total Aras error: E_total = sqrt((1 - r)^2 + (beta - 1)^2 + (alpha - 1)^2).\n- Mean Bias Ratio Error: beta - 1, where beta = mean(model) / mean(obs).\n- Variability Ratio Error: alpha - 1, where alpha = std(model) / std(obs).\n- Model Trust Engine: models below the mean-flow benchmark (KGE <= -0.41) receive zero weight; remaining models are weighted by skill.\n- Uncertainty band: across-model spread of the trusted weighted projection, reported instead of hidden.\n\n---\n_Note: Generated from the Arasense console._\n"
}